The Possibility of Monarchy Restoration in Nepal: A Detailed Historical, Political, and Social Analysis
The issue of monarchy restoration has once again become a focal point in Nepal’s political landscape. Debates are ongoing from social media to street protests, leading some analysts to speculate that Nepal is following the path of Sri Lanka or Bangladesh. However, these analyses are merely assumptions made without a deep study of historical facts, political realities, and social contexts.
The popular uprisings in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh were movements against government failures and corruption, focused on removing corrupt leadership rather than systemic change. The demand for monarchy restoration in Nepal, however, is an attempt to reinstate a system that has already failed in the past. This demand cannot be compared to the rebellions in those countries.
Historical Perspective: The Journey of Nepal’s Monarchy
The history of Nepal’s monarchy is long and tumultuous. The Shah dynasty played a significant role from the unification of Nepal to the creation of modern Nepal. However, over time, the monarchy lost its popularity.
- Era of Unification and Expansion (18th Century): Nepal was unified under the leadership of Prithvi Narayan Shah. His successors then expanded Nepal’s borders.
- Rana Rule (19th-20th Century): The Rana prime ministers ruled, overshadowing the kings. During this period, the kings’ role was limited.
- The Rise of Democracy (20th Century): The Rana rule ended in 1951, and democracy emerged. However, King Mahendra abolished democracy in 1960, implementing the Panchayat system.
- People’s Movements and Republic (20th-21st Century): The 1990 people’s movement ended the Panchayat system, establishing a constitutional monarchy. However, after the 2001 royal massacre, King Gyanendra imposed autocratic rule, leading to the 2006 people’s movement, which established full democracy and a republic.
Potential Bases for Monarchy Restoration
The possibility of monarchy restoration in Nepal can be analyzed from four main angles:
Political Consensus:
Nepal’s current democratic republican system is the result of a long struggle. The struggles from the 1951 revolution to the 2006 people’s movement have made the Nepali people aware of civic supremacy and democratic rights. The consent of major political parties is necessary for the restoration of the monarchy. However, major political forces like the Nepali Congress, CPN (UML), Maoist Center, and other Madhesh-centric parties are unlikely to easily accept the restoration of the monarchy, as their identities are tied to the democratic movement.
Constitutional Amendment:
Nepal’s constitution requires a two-thirds majority in parliament to change the state’s structure. However, given the current political equations, it seems impossible for any pro-monarchy party or group to secure even a simple majority in parliament, let alone a two-thirds majority. If an attempt is made to restore the monarchy through constitutional amendment via parliamentary means, nationwide public support is required, which is currently lacking.
Popular Uprising:
A widespread people’s movement is necessary for the restoration of the monarchy. However, looking at the history of Nepal’s kings, they have been losing public support. Historical events show that the Nepali people do not want to accept autocratic rule. If the monarchy is forcibly restored, it will trigger a larger people’s movement.
Military Coup:
Looking at the history of military coups, although the military has protected power, it has often taken leadership for itself. World examples show that even when the military seizes power, it does not necessarily restore the monarchy. In Nepal, if there were a military coup, the army would likely take control rather than restore the monarchy.
Potential Consequences of Monarchy Restoration
If the monarchy is restored for any reason, the following consequences could occur in Nepal:
- Unstable Governance: A forcibly restored monarchy is unlikely to bring long-term stability. Any system that suppresses civil rights cannot last long.
- Widespread People’s Movement: A more extensive protest than the 2006 people’s movement could occur. Citizens are likely to stand in favor of the republic and fight against autocratic rule.
- International Impact: The international community has invested in Nepal’s democratic structures. Institutions like India, the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations support Nepal’s republic. Monarchy restoration could severely affect international relations.
- Economic Impact: Increased instability will affect foreign investment. Unemployment and economic crisis in Nepal could deepen.
- Social Division: The issue of the monarchy could polarize society, disrupting social harmony.
Current Political and Social Realities
The necessary foundations for monarchy restoration are weak in Nepal’s current political and social realities.
- Democratic Values: The Nepali people have made democracy and the republic an integral part of their lifestyle. They are aware of civic supremacy and human rights.
- Role of Political Parties: Major political parties favor the republic and will thwart any attempt to restore the monarchy.
- Social Change: Nepal’s society has undergone significant change. The younger generation is more optimistic about democracy and the republic.
- International Support: The international community supports Nepal’s republic. They will oppose any move that disrupts the democratic process.
The necessary political, constitutional, social, and military foundations for monarchy restoration are largely absent in the current context. Democratic values have been established, and the people understand the importance of civic supremacy. Major political parties are in favor of the republic, so there is no possibility of restoring the monarchy through constitutional amendment. The Nepali people have rejected autocratic rule in the past, so the possibility of restoring the monarchy through popular uprising is low. The Nepali Army has accepted the republic, so the possibility of restoring the monarchy through a military coup is nil. Ultimately, any attempt to restore the monarchy will lead to greater instability. Nepal’s best option is to improve the current political system, because history shows that in the struggle between kings and people, the people ultimately prevail.
